Estimating a Project’s Duration: Theory & Practice
With Roger Warburton - Emeritus Professor Boston University, Boston, MA USA
On all projects, everyone wants to know how much it will cost and how long it will take. This guest seminar will explore the practical and theoretical issues surrounding any attempt to answer to those questions. Roger begins with the fascinating tale of a troubled project that he was asked to analyze and describes his predictions of substantial cost and schedule overruns, which were met with confusion, then skepticism, and finally, disbelief. That experience led Roger to develop better approaches, both to the theory of estimation and its presentation.
Roger will next cover the basic theory of duration estimation and some surprising practical results that emerged once he had established a formal approach. He will then explore the practical ramifications. Finally, Roger will review some long-neglected theoretical results that throw light on modern project management estimation methods. Those results also suggest new and powerful methods for understanding the structure of projects and for improving cost and duration prediction methods.